HEY BIG SPENDER, STEP RIGHT IN!

"It's the economy, stupid!"

So sayeth the great prophet James Carville. And most Americans would agree. But Carville forgot to explain how the economy is actually played in that great casino known as history. Where everyone has a different formula for winning at the tables. There's the House, the Players, the High Rollers, and then the Kibitzers. To untangle this taffy of conflicting interests, here's some news from the front...

* The House is whoever is in presidential office at the time. He's the face of the casino, the one with the cash in the vault, the one with the most at stake. Because if he can't show a profit at the end of his term, he's out of job. Oh, not because the players will vote him out; mainly because the casino investors will damn well see to it

* The Players come into this casino in all different shapes, sizes and bankrolls.The little ones -- that's you and me -- place their bets on selected insurance plans, 401Ks, and stocks. The casino promises them a fair shake of the dice and cut of the cards. But nothing more. Especially when the House is owned by investors who define a good year in terms of a good year for them. Where are their names on the marquee? No, you don't understand. They don't look for visibility; they just look for and expect the House to keep providing them a smashing big return on their investments

* The High Rollers have been trying to beat or buy the House right from the beginning. Colonial farmers used to get together donations to their favorite royal governors. Today the art of donations has been perfected, so that now there are roughly 300 really big High Rollers. Just one tiny example is the cool $1 million thrown against Washington DC Mayor Adrian Fenty by the teachers union opposed to his school superintendent's reforms. This $1 million constitutes a drop in a nationwide bucket of other vested interests that tops $1 billion every election

* Finally, the Kibitzers. Otherwise known as economists. As things stand now, it's easy to think economists were invented to make weather forecasters look good. That's because their predictions and plans have had a pretty spotty record. From Alexander Hamilton in the 1780s to Ronald Reagan in the 1980s to the current boss. But when these well-groomed Kibitzers talk about their "science," this hubris has shown to be about as reliable as the players who've been bringing "formulas" to the tables ever since someone invented the words break-the-bank

What's really fun about this casino is that it keeps hooking players who really believe. Believe what...? Well, when you ask them, they're not exactly sure. But get out of their way, they've got hunch...!